Ukraine War
How’s it going over there?
I don’t really care who wins the war overall. This is a conflict that is older than me and will continue longer than the life of my kids. However, if you were to remove the social media and western news coverage of the war, who is actually winning?
Russia is.
Russia controls 25% of Ukraine since the beginning of the war. As long as Ukraine tries to take embedded Russian positions, they will lose equipment, people, and western support for not making progress. It’s harder to take back land than it is to take new land. It would be easier for Ukraine to invade Russia proper and carve out 25% that way, but yet start an escalation of arms possibly invoking nuclear response on the Russia side.
What will happen?
On a long enough time scale, a majority of Ukraine will become Russian again. To deny this and to not see the Russian position is to live in your own reality. Ukraine independence is a western concept that when looking at a map, is indefensible. There are no geological features that makes this impossible or hard for Russia. The reason Russia has not won is direct western influence and poor planning on their part.
Overall, the worst thing to happen for the West would be a stalemate that last years. Eventually the West will stop funding Ukraine. When we do, would that create another Afghanistan?